Will Bitcoin be at or above $79,750 on Sep 9?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+45%$100 paper stake

Kalshi31¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO69¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 9

Forecast updated

Sep 9 forecast

Bitcoin remains below the threshold after repeated rejection near $80,000, so a September 9 price at or above $79,750 is unlikely.

Bitcoin is around $78,901, only 1.08% below the threshold, but recent trading has weakened and repeated moves toward $80,000 have faded. The outcome remains live because the gap is small relative to Bitcoin’s recent intraday swings, including a brief move above $80,400 one day earlier. Even so, nearby resistance and deteriorating short-term momentum make a September 9 price at or above $79,750 unlikely.

Points to NO

Bitcoin entered September 9 below the settlement threshold and losing ground.
At 8 a.m. on September 9, Bitcoin traded at $78,510, down 0.59% from the previous day.
Repeated rejection around $80,000 shows sellers defending the area just above the threshold.
On September 9, Bitcoin pulled back after failing to settle above $80,000 despite reaching a multi-week high of $82,266.
Immediate resistance sits close above the required price, limiting room for a clean recovery.
On September 9, Titan FX placed immediate resistance at $79,950 and major resistance at $80,000 and $81,400.

Points to YES

The remaining distance is small enough for an ordinary intraday rebound to clear the threshold.
On September 9, the settlement-basis price was about $78,901, placing $79,750 roughly 1.08% higher.
Recent trading demonstrates enough intraday range to cross $79,750 before settlement.
On September 8, Bitcoin briefly traded above $80,400 before fading toward $79,000.

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