Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 84.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 1, 2026?
October WTI is already above $84.49 amid renewed U.S.-Iran strikes, so a September 1 settlement above the threshold is likely with meaningful uncertainty.
October WTI enters the final day above the threshold after renewed U.S.-Iran strikes and a tanker attack revived fears over Gulf exports. Severe shipping disruption, depleted inventories, and a projected quarterly supply deficit support prices. However, the contract crossed below $84.49 intraday on August 31, while recovering Persian Gulf exports and weak demand create substantial downside risk. A settlement above the threshold is likely with meaningful uncertainty because the current cushion is modest and both geopolitical escalation and de-escalation could trigger sharp moves.
- October WTI is currently above the resolution threshold, providing a modest cushion before settlement.On August 31, 2026, the October WTI contract was displayed at $85.58 per barrel, above the $84.49 threshold.
- Renewed direct U.S.-Iran hostilities are increasing the risk premium on oil supplies moving through the Gulf.On August 30, 2026, the United States attacked Iranian military facilities and Iran retaliated with ballistic-missile launches.
- Extremely restricted Strait of Hormuz traffic leaves crude supply vulnerable to further disruption.Commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz on August 27, 2026 was just under 10% of its normal pre-war level.
- The contract remains close enough to the threshold that ordinary intraday volatility could produce a lower settlement.On August 31, 2026, October WTI traded from $84.11 to $86.79, crossing the $84.49 threshold during the session.
- Recovering Persian Gulf exports and soft demand limit the durability of the geopolitical price surge.On August 31, 2026, Goldman Sachs estimated Persian Gulf oil exports had recovered to around two-thirds of pre-war levels.
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