Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+61%$100 paper stake

Polymarket38¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO62¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 1

Forecast updated

Jul 8 forecast

An in-person meeting is unlikely by July 31 because deep Ukrainian domestic resistance keeps diplomacy confined to remote and shuttle formats.

Market overprices physical proximity talks; mediator bandwidth in Qatar and Ukrainian resistance heavily favor remote shuttle diplomacy.

Points to NO

US mediator bandwidth diverted to Middle East
US envoys Kushner and Witkoff joined Qatar Iran negotiations, July 2
Ukraine denies upcoming physical summit plans
Ukrainian officials confirmed no trilateral summit plans exist, July 8
Current diplomatic successes achieved remotely
UAE mediated remote exchange of 320 captives, July 6

Points to YES

US administration claims diplomatic momentum
US administration stated Ukraine peace resolution approaching, July 6

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