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US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?

Realized · held to resolution100%$100 paper stake
Polymarket32¢ 100¢
Our position · NO68¢
Signal endedJul 28
Forecast updatedJul 27
Jul 21 forecast

No general halt will be announced by July 31 because US strikes are actively escalating and Washington insists they continue until further notice.

The United States is actively bombing targets in Iran under Operation Epic Fury, and top officials are saying the strikes will keep going until President Trump says otherwise. Trump himself has said the previous ceasefire is finished and that Iran must pay for violations. With only about ten days left in the resolution window, there is no sign of talks, mediation progress, or any official statement that the US is ending offensive action in general. A partial or conditional pause is possible but would not meet the contract’s requirement for a clear, general, present suspension. The most likely outcome is that July 31 arrives with operations still underway and no halt announced.

Points to NO
  • US Central Command lists active Operation Epic Fury with strikes aimed at dismantling Iranian security apparatus.
    Evidence
  • Trump has explicitly said the prior Iran ceasefire is over and the US should finish the job.
    Evidence
  • A senior US official quoted on July 20 said strikes will continue until the president decides otherwise.
    Evidence

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