US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?
Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake
Polymarket78¢ → 0¢
Our position · YES78¢ → 0¢
Signal endedAug 30
Forecast updatedAug 30
Aug 30 forecast
Washington has relied on sanctions while major strikes on Iran have remained paused for nearly a month, so the U.S. ceasefire through September is likely to hold.
The pause in major strikes has endured despite vessel attacks, hostile rhetoric, and an expired memorandum. Washington is emphasizing sanctions, returning diplomats to regional posts, and tolerating provocations without military retaliation. Stalled talks and the continuing blockade leave meaningful escalation risk, but the likeliest outcome is that restraint lasts through September.
Points to YES
- Washington has shifted from strikes toward economic pressure, reducing the immediate impetus for a qualifying attack.As of August 29, a monitored conflict update reported no major airstrikes on Iranian territory for nearly a month and said Washington was relying on sanctions.
- The United States has absorbed repeated maritime provocations without launching another attack on Iran.By August 19, multiple commercial vessels had been hit since the last reported U.S. strike, without an announced U.S. military response.
- Returning U.S. diplomats to regional missions indicates reduced concern about an imminent escalation.On August 26, the United States was preparing to return personnel to some Middle Eastern diplomatic missions previously evacuated or downsized during tensions with Iran.
Points to NO
- Diplomatic channels are stalled, leaving fewer mechanisms to manage a sudden crisis.On August 28, the White House said no discussions with Iran were underway or scheduled.
- The continuing U.S. blockade creates recurring opportunities for confrontation and retaliation.As of August 28, CENTCOM forces were continuing to enforce the U.S. blockade against Iran.
- Iranian leaders continue to threaten forceful retaliation, increasing the risk that an incident prompts a U.S. strike.On August 29, Iranian leaders threatened escalation in response to the continuing U.S. blockade and planned new sanctions.
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