Will Bitcoin be at or above $79,750 on Aug 25?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi21¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES21¢ → 0¢

Signal endedAug 25

Forecast updatedAug 25

Bitcoin has already cleared the threshold today and remains within a modest rebound, so an above-threshold August 25 price is narrowly favored.

Bitcoin was below the threshold around midday, but the gap was modest and the price had traded well above it earlier. Strong spot-fund inflows and the recent rally support another recovery, while repeated rejection near $80,000, overbought conditions, and elevated leverage leave substantial downside risk. An above-threshold price is narrowly favored, but either side remains vulnerable to a sharp move.

Points to YES

The latest shortfall is small enough for normal intraday volatility to erase, keeping an above-threshold reading within immediate reach.
At 12:37:50 GMT on August 25, the Nasdaq Bitcoin Reference Price was $78,933.67, about $816 below the threshold.
Bitcoin has already traded comfortably above the threshold today, showing that renewed buying need not produce an unusually large move.
On August 25, Bitcoin rose as high as $81,257 after crossing $80,000 for the first time since mid-May.
Heavy inflows into spot Bitcoin funds provide underlying demand that could absorb profit-taking and support a late recovery.
U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin funds received about $1.92 billion in the week before August 25 and a further $337 million on August 25.

Points to NO

The sharp reversal from the intraday high shows sellers can quickly push Bitcoin back below the threshold, reducing confidence that another rebound will hold.
By 12:19 UTC on August 25, Coinbase Pro BTC/USD was $78,933.87 after trading as high as $81,265.30 earlier in the session.
Overbought momentum and concentrated selling pressure around the threshold zone increase the chance that attempted recoveries are rejected.
On August 25, Bitcoin's momentum indicator was near 78, while selling pressure was identified between $78,500 and $82,000.
Increased derivatives leverage creates a path for a modest decline to accelerate through forced selling before the qualifying observation.
On August 25, increased derivatives leverage and funding rates were reported alongside a risk of cascading liquidations if Bitcoin reversed sharply.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.