Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?

Realized · 7-day hold+31%$100 paper stake

Polymarket60¢ → 79¢

Our position · YES60¢ → 79¢

Signal endedJul 24

Forecast updatedJul 30

Jul 17 forecast

Nvidia will likely remain the world's largest company on July 31 because it holds a consistent market value lead over Apple.

NVIDIA holds a consistent ~$5.0-5.15T market cap lead over Apple as of July 17, and while the gap is narrow enough to flip over 10 trading days—especially around Apple’s July 30… Whether Apple’s July 30 earnings and any accompanying stock move can close a $127B+ gap in the final sessions before July 31. NVIDIA is currently reported at $5.03-5.15T, leading Apple by roughly $127B to a few hundred billion with credible consensus across sources. Apple earnings are scheduled July 30, providing a direct catalyst to shift sentiment and valuation in the final 24-48 hours.

Points to YES

NVIDIA is currently reported at $5.03-5.15T, leading Apple by roughly $127B to a few hundred billion with credible consensus across sources.
Evidence

Points to NO

Apple earnings are scheduled July 30, providing a direct catalyst to shift sentiment and valuation in the final 24-48 hours.
Evidence

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