Will Bitcoin be at or above $77,750 on Aug 29?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi50¢ → 100¢

Our position · NO50¢ → 0¢

Signal endedAug 29

Forecast updated

Aug 28 forecast

Bitcoin’s late-day selloff left it below the cutoff with little recovery time, so a qualifying August 29 price is unlikely.

Bitcoin is only slightly below the required level, keeping the outcome live, but the latest readings followed a sharp, high-volume decline from above $79,000. Hawkish inflation commentary and repeated failures near $81,000 weaken the case for an immediate recovery. Strong ETF demand offers rebound potential, yet the short window leaves little time for those inflows to overcome the latest downward momentum.

Points to NO

Bitcoin entered the final window below the cutoff after a sharp daily decline, making a fast reversal necessary for a qualifying price.
At 4:00 p.m. New York time on August 28, the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate New York Variant was $77,605.70, down 3.13%.
The decline came with rising trading activity, suggesting active selling rather than an isolated low-volume price fluctuation.
On August 28, bitcoin pulled back about 3% Friday afternoon while trading volume rose about 14% from the prior day.
Repeated rejection near the longer-term technical barrier makes an immediate return above the cutoff less dependable.
On August 28, bitcoin had twice tested and retreated from its roughly $81,000 50-week moving average after rebounding from $77,700 to $81,280.

Points to YES

Sustained institutional fund inflows provide underlying demand that could power a rapid rebound above the nearby cutoff.
An August 28 update reported a ninth consecutive net-inflow day for U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, with another $242 million added.

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