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Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 4, 2026?

Realized · held to resolution+45%$100 paper stake
Polymarket69¢ 100¢
Our position · YES69¢ 100¢
Signal endedSep 1
Forecast updatedSep 1
Aug 30 forecast

Unofficial reports of background Fable 5.1 routing suggest deployment has begun, so Anthropic’s next Mythos-class release by the deadline is likely with meaningful uncertainty.

The latest unofficial evidence points toward a stealth Fable 5.1 rollout, creating a credible path to a rapid public launch. Official evidence still leans against a qualifying release: Anthropic’s recent migration guide retains Fable 5 as its leading widely released model, restricts Mythos 5, and omits Fable 5.1. Even so, background routing can precede formal product announcements, allowing public availability to emerge with little warning. Anthropic’s next Mythos-class release by the deadline is therefore likely with meaningful uncertainty.

Points to NO

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