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Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?

Realized · 7-day hold+61%$100 paper stake
Polymarket57¢ 92¢
Our position · YES57¢ 92¢
Signal endedAug 29
Forecast updatedAug 28
Aug 22 forecast

Anthropic has already turned restricted Mythos technology into a public product, so a qualifying safeguarded successor by the deadline is likely.

Anthropic established a route from restricted Mythos capabilities to a safeguarded public model with Fable 5, and it now has newer internal systems available to productize. Its active release cadence leaves enough time for another packaged launch. The main obstacle is explicit reporting that Model 2 remains internal and has not completed the work required for external deployment. A qualifying release is likely with meaningful uncertainty, most plausibly under a safer product name rather than as unrestricted Mythos 2.

Points to YES
Points to NO

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