Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
Realized · 7-day hold+16%$100 paper stake
Polymarket46¢ → 38¢
Our position · NO54¢ → 62¢
Signal endedJul 22
Forecast updatedAug 8
Jul 15 forecast
Iran is unlikely to charge Strait of Hormuz transit fees by August 31 because the reinstated US naval blockade has paralyzed commercial transit.
Active military hostilities and a renewed U.S. naval blockade structurally foreclose commercial transit. Historical precedent strongly suggests that any future truce will rely on Iran waiving transit fees, suppressing the probability of a formal toll system by August 31.
Points to NO
- US reinstated naval blockade on Iranian ports, July 14US Central Command announced resumption of naval blockade, July 14
- IRGC declared Strait of Hormuz closed, July 14IRGC stated Strait closed until US ends actions, July 14
- June truce required Iranian fee waiverIran waived Hormuz transit fees for 60 days following June 19 MoU
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