QuotientQuotientQuotient

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

Realized · 7-day hold+19%$100 paper stake
Polymarket44¢ 34¢
Our position · NO56¢ 66¢
Signal endedJul 24
Forecast updatedAug 13
Jul 17 forecast

A formal US-Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31 is unlikely because Iranian officials explicitly deny any negotiation plans, leaving only staff-level technical contacts since June 22.

Iranian officials explicitly deny negotiation plans, prospects are described as bleak, and only staff-level technical contacts have occurred since June 22, making a formal… Whether mediators can secure sudden Iranian authorization for in-person principals despite the July 16 refusal and absence of scheduled… Iranian FM denied negotiation plans on July 16 and July 15 analysis called prospects bleak (E10, E11). All post-June 22 interactions remain staff-level technical or mediator-only with no new senior round convened (E3, E4, E6, E12).

Points to NO
  • Iranian FM denied negotiation plans on July 16 and July 15 analysis called prospects bleak (E10, E11).
    Evidence
  • All post-June 22 interactions remain staff-level technical or mediator-only with no new senior round convened (E3, E4, E6, E12).
    Evidence
Points to YES
  • US commitment continues and mediators outlined a 60-day roadmap that could eventually convene principals (E1, E2, E5, E7).
    Evidence

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.