Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13?
Realized · held to resolution+56%$100 paper stake
Polymarket36¢ → 0¢
Our position · NO64¢ → 100¢
Signal endedJul 17
Forecast updatedJul 13
Iran is very unlikely to directly hit or board a vessel on July 13, because US military escorts have left few reachable targets.
Active window constraints and severe target scarcity suppress new strikes. Prior major hit fell outside the temporal window. Remaining probability depends heavily on retroactive boarding confirmation.
Points to NO
- Temporal Exclusion of Major StrikeGFS Galaxy hit at 2240 UTC July 11, equating to July 12 IRST
- Target ScarcityCommercial traffic falling to six daily vessels, July 13
- Active US EscortsUS successfully escorting approximately 20 vessels, July 13
Points to YES
- Ambiguous IRGC 'Stopping' OperationIRGC operation stopping two vessels disabling their systems, July 13
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