Will Bitcoin be at or above $77,500 on Sep 3?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+108%$100 paper stake

Kalshi48¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES48¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 3

Forecast updated

Sep 3 forecast

Bitcoin is narrowly above the strike with hours remaining, so a September 3 settlement at or above $77,500 is favored.

A finish at or above $77,500 is favored because Bitcoin is currently just above the cutoff, but the cushion is tiny and September 3 trading has spanned both sides. Recent losses, leveraged-long liquidations and weakening support point to downside pressure, while the rebound from September 2 lows keeps YES ahead. Sharp moves in either direction remain plausible before settlement, making the outcome far from guaranteed.

Points to YES

Bitcoin entered September 3 above the settlement threshold.
At 04:03 UTC on September 3, Bitcoin was $77,731.28, above the $77,500 cutoff.
Bitcoin recovered substantially after testing lower support on September 2.
On September 2, Bitcoin rebounded from just under $76,300 to hover above $77,200.

Points to NO

The threshold sits inside Bitcoin's September 3 trading range, leaving almost no protective cushion.
Through 04:03 UTC on September 3, Bitcoin traded between $76,929.29 and $77,877.20, crossing the $77,500 threshold.
Leveraged selling pressure recently amplified Bitcoin's decline.
On September 2, $91 million of leveraged Bitcoin long positions were liquidated.
Recent institutional fund flows include a sharp one-day reversal after strong cumulative inflows.
On September 1, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their largest single-day redemption in the August 14–September 1 sample, totaling $236.5 million.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.