Will the brent crude oil close price be above 99.50 USD/Bbl on September 09, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi50¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES50¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 9

Forecast updatedSep 9

Repeated intraday prices above $100 provide a cushion over the threshold, so a Brent close above $99.50 at 5 PM EDT is likely.

The visible evidence favors a YES resolution: Brent climbed from below $99.50 to repeated readings above $100, while attacks on Saudi energy sites and constrained Gulf flows supported prices. The previous close below $98 and substantial intraday swings leave meaningful reversal risk. The exact settlement candle is not yet available, but maintaining the recent cushion through the final minute is the more likely outcome.

Points to YES

Brent established a meaningful intraday cushion above the settlement threshold.
At 13:15 GMT on September 9, front-month Brent futures traded at $100.66 per barrel.
A late-day report still placed Brent above $100, although the unspecified timezone limits its settlement relevance.
November Brent was reported at $100.03 per barrel at 4:31 p.m. on September 9, but the report did not specify a timezone.
Physical supply disruptions support elevated crude prices into the close.
Saudi Arabia confirmed on September 8 that multiple energy sites were hit, caught fire and suffered partial operational outages.

Points to NO

Brent traded below the threshold earlier the same day, demonstrating enough volatility to reverse the current cushion.
At 9:43 a.m. on September 9, November Brent futures were $99.34 per barrel.
The prior settlement was well below the threshold, leaving today's move exposed to profit-taking or reversal.
Brent settled at $97.92 per barrel on September 8.

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