Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?
Realized · 7-day hold+80%$100 paper stake
Polymarket52¢ → 94¢
Our position · YES52¢ → 94¢
Signal endedAug 26
Forecast updatedAug 24
Aug 19 forecast
With school-year weekdays and a steep weekend slowdown limiting the remaining run, an August finish in the target range is favored but far from guaranteed.
The film has already cleared the range’s lower boundary, leaving only the upper cutoff at risk. Its extraordinary opening and continued wide release keep an overshoot plausible, but receipts have fallen sharply and school reopenings should weaken weekdays. The most likely path is continued strong business that nonetheless slows enough to remain within the target range through August.
Points to YES
- The lower boundary has already been cleared, eliminating the risk of an August total below the target range and leaving only an overshoot capable of defeating YES.On August 18, The Numbers reported a domestic total of $803,929,225 after 19 days in release.
- Rapid weekly declines make it harder to add enough late-August revenue to cross the upper boundary before the deadline.The Numbers reported weekly grosses of $510,088,528, $205,743,142, and $70,711,990, with successive declines of 60% and 51%.
- School reopenings should compress weekday attendance, reducing the film’s remaining earning capacity before August ends.On August 16, Screendollars reported that half of K-12 students would be back in school by August 17 and 70% by August 24, with weekday business expected to shrink dramatically.
Points to NO
- The film is still earning heavily across a very wide release, so even a modestly better-than-expected hold could push it beyond the upper boundary.On August 18, The Numbers reported a $9,877,359 daily gross from 4,539 theaters and a cumulative total of $803,929,225.
- Current industry expectations point toward continued momentum strong enough to threaten or exceed the upper cutoff before or shortly after the deadline.On August 19, Koimoi stated that the film was certain to cross $900 million domestically.
- The projected fourth weekend remains large enough to keep an August overshoot live despite the film’s steep decline from its opening.On August 18, Deadline reported an estimated fourth weekend near $35 million, representing about a 50% decline.
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