Will Bitcoin be at or above $79,000 on Sep 11?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi44¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES44¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 11

Forecast updated

Sep 8 forecast

Bitcoin sits almost exactly at the threshold with only days left.

Bitcoin starts just $31 above the threshold. Repeated failures above $80,000 and recent sensitivity to economic data argue against a comfortable hold, while strong ETF inflows and constructive moving averages provide buying support. With several days remaining and the September 11 inflation report capable of moving Bitcoin sharply in either direction, a $79,000-or-higher settlement is genuinely close, with the above-threshold outcome slightly more likely.

Points to YES

Bitcoin is currently just above the $79,000 threshold, leaving only a small gain necessary for a YES outcome.
On September 8, Bitcoin's settlement-basis price was $79,031.114.
Heavy spot Bitcoin ETF inflows provide meaningful buying support near the threshold.
U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs received approximately $3.8 billion over the three weeks through September 4, their strongest three-week run of 2026.
Bitcoin remains above key daily moving averages, preserving a constructive technical backdrop despite recent weakness.
On September 7, Bitcoin remained above its 20-day, 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages.

Points to NO

Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to establish a firm foothold above the nearby $80,000–$82,000 range.
As of September 7, Bitcoin had been unable to establish itself firmly above the $80,000–$82,000 range.
Bitcoin has recently reacted sharply to economic data that strengthened expectations for tighter monetary policy.
On September 4, Bitcoin dropped almost 3% after stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data revived expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate hike.

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