Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?

Realized · 7-day hold+13%$100 paper stake

Polymarket78¢ → 88¢

Our position · YES78¢ → 88¢

Signal endedAug 27

Forecast updatedAug 28

Aug 20 forecast

Two already-developed successors shorten the path to launch, so a new public Mythos-class model is likely by September.

Anthropic has developed two successors and previously indicated that more capable models were coming within months. Its earlier Fable 5 launch shows it can turn restricted Mythos capabilities into a separate, generally available model. A qualifying release is therefore likely, with meaningful uncertainty because Model 2 remains internal, lacks completed release evaluations, and faces substantial safety constraints.

Points to YES

Two developed successors reduce the technical work needed to produce another Mythos-class release within the remaining window.
On August 14, reporting said Anthropic had developed two successors to Claude Mythos 5, with Model 2 the more capable one.
Anthropic’s stated model timetable places another capability release within the relevant period and supports a near-term launch path.
On June 9, Anthropic said more capable models were arriving in the coming months as it improved safeguards and reduced false positives.
The Fable 5 precedent gives Anthropic a route to release Mythos-class capabilities publicly while retaining tighter controls on the less-restricted counterpart.
On June 9, Anthropic publicly launched Fable 5 as a Mythos-class model for general use while limiting Mythos 5 to approved customers.

Points to NO

Model 2 is not yet an external-release candidate, leaving evaluation and productization work that could push a launch beyond September.
On August 19, reporting said Anthropic had no current plans to release Model 2 externally and had not completed its standard external-release evaluation suite.
The absence of an official successor identity or launch artifact indicates that a qualifying public product has not yet entered a visible rollout phase.
On August 19, reporting said Anthropic had not confirmed Model 2 as a Mythos successor or announced a product page, system card, release date, or API identifier.

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