Iran full airspace closure by July 24?

Iran is very unlikely to order a nationwide airspace closure before July 24 because it kept its skies open even through recent conflict peaks.

The observed state through July 19 is open, with no Iranian NOTAM, no state media closure report, and a documented strategic preference to maintain airspace for leverage. Prior closures in this conflict have been localized or event-bound (funeral, Mashhad, western regions) rather than FIR-general. Active conflict (E2, E3) raises tail risk, but Iran’s revealed threshold for a blanket suspension is high—evidenced by open operations during July 7-8 strikes. The 5-day horizon is short, reducing the opportunity for a new large-scale trigger to emerge and be acted upon. Combining an outside-view blended rate near 11% with strong downward current evidence produces a low single-digit to low-single-digit final forecast, centered near 6%.