Will SPD win between 7% and 9% of all valid second votes?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket56¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES56¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 7

Forecast updated

Sep 2 forecast

Polls cluster inside the target despite sizable error, so an SPD second-vote share of at least 7% but below 9% is favored but uncertain.

SPD's latest readings cluster around the target: INSA has it at 7%, Infratest dimap at 8%, and PolitPro's weighted trend at 7.4%. That concentration makes a result of at least 7% but below 9% the more likely outcome. However, one recent poll placed SPD at the excluded 9% boundary, while past polling errors have been large enough to carry the result outside either edge.

Points to YES

The broad polling trend places SPD comfortably within the target band.
On September 2, PolitPro's weighted Sachsen-Anhalt election trend placed SPD at 7.4%.
Infratest dimap independently places SPD near the middle of the target band.
An Infratest dimap poll conducted August 24–25 put SPD at 8%.
The latest INSA reading puts SPD exactly at the target band's lower boundary after a small gain.
An INSA survey conducted from August 26 through September 1 put SPD at 7%, one percentage point above its August 10 reading.

Points to NO

Ordinary polling error is wide relative to the target band's narrow width.
On September 2, the latest INSA poll reported a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
A recent Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll reached the excluded upper boundary.
A Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll conducted August 25–27 put SPD at 9%.

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