Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 84.99 USD/Bbl on Sep 1, 2026?
October WTI is already above $84.99 as renewed Hormuz conflict threatens supply, so an above-threshold September 1 settlement is likely with meaningful uncertainty.
October WTI is around $85.44, modestly above the $84.99 threshold, after renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities and tanker disruption increased immediate supply concerns. Severely constrained Hormuz traffic and tight inventories support the contract, but recovering Gulf exports and an August 31 intraday low of $84.11 show how quickly the cushion can disappear. An above-threshold settlement is therefore likely with meaningful uncertainty.
- October WTI entered August 31 above the settlement threshold.At 5:52 a.m. EDT on August 31, the October 2026 contract was quoted at $86.50 per barrel.
- Renewed direct U.S.-Iran hostilities are increasing immediate oil-supply risk.On August 31, oil prices gapped higher after the United States struck Iranian missile launchers and Iran reportedly retaliated against regional U.S. assets.
- Severely depressed Hormuz traffic keeps disruption risk elevated.Commodity-ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell to five per day over the August 29–30 weekend.
- The contract has already traded well below the threshold during the current session.On August 31, October WTI traded as low as $84.11 after opening at $84.69.
- Recovering Persian Gulf exports limit the pressure for another crude-price surge.On August 31, Goldman Sachs estimated that Persian Gulf oil exports had recovered to around two-thirds of prewar levels.
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