Will Bitcoin be at or above $76,500 on Sep 3?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+47%$100 paper stake

Kalshi68¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES68¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 3

Forecast updated

Sep 2 forecast

Bitcoin is trading above $76,500 with less than a day remaining, so a September 3 settlement at or above the threshold is likely.

Bitcoin is currently $77,129.80, about 0.82% above the required level, with only 21.5 hours remaining. Its recovery above $77,000 and stronger daily trend support a finish above the threshold. However, recent intraday lows below $76,500, ETF outflows and weak short-term momentum show that the cushion can disappear quickly. The short window makes the current lead especially important, so a settlement at or above $76,500 is likely.

Points to YES

Bitcoin has recovered above $77,000 after testing levels close to the threshold.
On September 2, Bitcoin reclaimed $77,000 after reaching a local intraday low of $76,400.
Bitcoin's broader daily trend remains stronger than its weaker hourly momentum.
On September 2, Bitcoin remained above its daily 20-, 50- and 200-period exponential moving averages.

Points to NO

Repeated intraday breaches show that the settlement threshold is within ordinary short-term trading range.
On September 2, Bitcoin reached an intraday low of $76,229.
Recent institutional flows have weakened near the settlement window.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $236.5 million outflow on September 1.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.