Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Polymarket75¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES75¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 17

Forecast updated

Sep 2 forecast

Every supplied seat projection puts the Sweden Democrats second, so a second-place Riksdag finish is likely despite their occasionally narrow lead over Moderaterna.

The Sweden Democrats lead Moderaterna in every supplied late-August poll, and the newest survey shows a wider cushion after earlier polling approached a statistical tie. Seat projections also consistently place the Sweden Democrats second behind the Social Democrats. A small late swing could still reverse the Sweden Democrats’ order with Moderaterna, but a second-place finish is likely.

Points to YES

The newest poll gives the Sweden Democrats a clear second-place position and a wider lead over Moderaterna than other recent surveys.
In polling conducted August 24–30, 2026, the Sweden Democrats received 20.7% support, behind the Social Democrats at 25.8% and ahead of Moderaterna at 17.2%.
A recent seat projection places the Sweden Democrats second even with a relatively narrow advantage over Moderaterna.
A projection based on polling through August 16, 2026 allocated 67 seats to the Sweden Democrats, 63 to Moderaterna, and 111 to the Social Democrats.
The Sweden Democrats already demonstrated their ability to finish ahead of Moderaterna in the previous parliamentary election.
In the September 11, 2022 election, the Sweden Democrats won 73 seats and finished second, ahead of Moderaterna with 68 seats.

Points to NO

Some late-August polling showed the Sweden Democrats’ lead over Moderaterna narrow enough for ordinary polling error to reverse their order.
In late-August 2026 polling, the Sweden Democrats fell to 18.3% while Moderaterna reached 17.2%, leaving a 1.1-point gap.

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