Will Bitcoin be at or above $77,500 on Aug 26?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+47%$100 paper stake

Kalshi68¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES68¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 26

Forecast updatedAug 26

Bitcoin’s observed Aug. 26 range remains entirely above $77,500, so a qualifying price on the date is highly likely.

All reported Aug. 26 prices remain above the threshold, and strong recent gains plus sustained fund inflows support demand. Profit-taking and liquidation-driven volatility threaten the narrow cushion, but a qualifying price remains the more likely outcome.

Points to YES

Bitcoin has stayed above the threshold throughout the captured Aug. 26 range, making a qualifying observation the expected outcome unless a fresh decline develops.
On Aug. 26, the captured daily range ran from $78,320.90 to $79,230.90, entirely above $77,500.
The recent breakout gives Bitcoin upward momentum and increases the chance that buyers defend the threshold during any further pullback.
On Aug. 21, Bitcoin rose above $77,000 after gaining more than 20% during the week, following several weeks between $62,000 and $67,000.
Persistent spot-fund inflows add buying demand that can absorb selling and help preserve Bitcoin’s cushion above the threshold.
U.S. spot Bitcoin funds recorded $337.6 million in net inflows on Aug. 25, extending their inflow streak to six sessions.

Points to NO

Profit-taking after an overextended rally is reversing intraday gains and could push Bitcoin through the nearby threshold.
On Aug. 26, Bitcoin retreated to around $78,500 after reaching $81,238, while its daily RSI was reported at 82.44.
Liquidation-driven volatility has already brought Bitcoin close to the cutoff, leaving limited protection against another abrupt sell-off.
On Aug. 26, Bitcoin traded around $77,700 following a liquidation wave, while open interest remained stable and funding rates subdued.

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