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Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 4, 2026?

Realized · held to resolution+43%$100 paper stake
Polymarket70¢ 100¢
Our position · YES70¢ 100¢
Signal endedSep 1
Forecast updatedSep 1

Bedrock staging changes point to late launch preparation, so Mythos-class Claude Fable 5.1’s public release by September 4 is likely.

Official public evidence currently leans against an imminent release: Anthropic’s catalogue still omits Fable 5.1, an expected August launch passed, and Anthropic has confirmed neither the model nor its timing. Even so, changing Bedrock responses and reported account testing are consistent with a launch being staged, while resumed security evaluations remove one possible obstacle. With several days remaining and little advance notice required, a last-minute public rollout is likely, though the short window leaves meaningful uncertainty.

Points to YES
Points to NO

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