Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,000 on Sep 1?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi69¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES69¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 1

Forecast updated

Aug 31 forecast

Bitcoin sits about 1% above the threshold with less than a day remaining, so a September 1 price of at least $78,000 is likely.

The settlement-basis price is about $78,824, leaving a modest cushion with less than a day remaining. Bitcoin has recovered rapidly from intraday weakness, and its broader August advance supports continued buying. However, the day’s range crossed $78,000 in both directions, showing that ordinary volatility could still erase the cushion. A qualifying settlement is likely, but meaningful uncertainty remains because the threshold is close and recent trading has been volatile.

Points to YES

Bitcoin currently has a small but meaningful cushion above the settlement threshold.
On August 31, the settlement-basis price was $78,824.087, about 1.05% above $78,000 with 22.8 hours remaining.
Buyers have repeatedly reclaimed the threshold after intraday selling.
On August 31, Bitcoin recovered from a session low of $77,024 into the mid-$78,500s.
Strong August momentum provides a supportive backdrop for holding the threshold.
Late on August 31, Bitcoin remained on course to finish August with a 30-day gain just under 25%.

Points to NO

The narrow cushion is vulnerable because recent trading has spanned both sides of the threshold.
On August 31, Bitcoin traded between $77,161.61 and $79,346.68, crossing the $78,000 threshold in both directions.
Recent institutional fund flows have turned less supportive.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $201.9 million in net outflows on August 28, ending nine consecutive inflow days.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.