Will Bitcoin be at or above $79,500 on Aug 28?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi41¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES41¢ → 0¢

Signal endedAug 28

Forecast updated

Aug 25 forecast

Bitcoin already trades above the threshold after a powerful spot-backed rally, so an August 28 price at or above $79,500 is favored.

Bitcoin has crossed the threshold with strong momentum and substantial spot ETF inflows behind the advance. The rally also included short covering, however, and stretched momentum, active downside hedging and rising volatility leave ample room for a reversal. Holding the recent breakout is favored.

Points to YES

Bitcoin’s position above $79,500 gives it a cushion and means buyers need only defend the breakout rather than generate another large advance.
At 08:23 GMT on August 25, the Nasdaq Bitcoin Reference Price Real-Time Index stood at $80,034.51.
Large spot ETF inflows provide buying demand that could absorb profit-taking and help sustain the breakout through August 28.
An August 25 report said U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs received about $1.9 billion during the prior week, their largest weekly inflow since October 2025.
The advance was not driven solely by expanding leveraged bets, making it less vulnerable to an immediate leverage-driven unwind.
On August 24, futures open interest had fallen to 715,000 Bitcoin from 762,000 Bitcoin on August 18 while spot prices rose, indicating that spot buying and short unwinding drove much of the rally.

Points to NO

Overbought momentum and nearby selling pressure increase the chance that profit-taking pushes Bitcoin back below the threshold before August 28.
On August 25, Bitcoin’s momentum indicator was near 78, while selling pressure was identified between $78,500 and $82,000.
Continued demand for downside protection signals that traders see meaningful reversal risk despite the breakout.
On August 25, Bitcoin’s seven-day options skew remained negative even after the price moved above $80,000.

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