Will above 20000 jobs be added in August 2026?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+56%$100 paper stake

Kalshi64¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES64¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 4

Forecast updated

Aug 31 forecast

Most major estimates exceed 20,000 by comfortable margins, so an August U.S. payroll gain above the threshold is likely.

Most current estimates place August payroll growth well above 20,000, while subdued unemployment claims suggest layoffs have not accelerated sharply. Expected rebounds in education and leisure employment offer a plausible route past the threshold. However, July’s payroll decline, large downward revisions, weak job postings, and one below-threshold estimate leave meaningful uncertainty around an outcome that is still likely.

Points to YES

Surveyed economists expect payroll growth to clear the threshold by a substantial margin.
On August 27, a survey of economists projected that employers would add 65,000 jobs in August 2026.
Partial reversals of July’s unusually large sector losses could drive an August rebound.
On August 31, an outlook projected that leisure, hospitality, and state and local government education would recover some of July’s employment declines.
Low and declining unemployment claims indicate that layoffs remained contained late in August.
Initial unemployment claims were 203,000 in the week ending August 22, down 4,000 from the previous week’s revised level.

Points to NO

July’s payroll contraction shows that the labor market can fall short even of this low threshold.
Total nonfarm payroll employment decreased by 23,000 in July 2026.
Recent downward revisions raise the risk that initially measured payroll strength is weaker than it appears.
On August 7, revisions reduced the previously reported May and June payroll totals by a combined 103,000 jobs.
Hiring demand remains soft compared with both last year and pre-pandemic conditions.
As of August 14, new job postings were about 3% below their February 2020 level and down 2.9% from a year earlier.

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