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Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit $75 in August?

Realized · 7-day hold46%$100 paper stake
Polymarket68¢ 37¢
Our position · YES68¢ 37¢
Signal endedAug 17
Forecast updatedAug 31
Aug 10 forecast

The forecast is likely yes with meaningful uncertainty because WTI futures already printed session lows near 74.24 and 74.57 on August 5 and 6, clearly under the 75 threshold, before rebounding.

WTI crude futures recorded session lows of 74.24 on August 5 and 74.57 on August 6, both well below the 75 level required for a downward hit. By August 7 market reports explicitly noted prices slipping under 75, and by August 10 the contract had rebounded to settle near 78 and trade around 79.59 with a session low near 77.79. This rebound does not erase the earlier breach. The resolution rules ask whether any 1-minute candle during an August trading session reached or went below 75; the historical price data and settlement reports indicate that happened. Residual uncertainty comes from the lack of direct Pyth 1-minute candle verification in the available records, potential contract-roll effects that could shift which contract is active, and the possibility that official CME backup figures differ. Meanwhile, geopolitical supply risks—including strikes near Hormuz and Saudi facilities—remain present, supporting the chance of renewed downward pressure. Given that the dip has already occurred within the window and the month continues, the outcome is likely yes, though verification gaps and structural market mechanics leave meaningful uncertainty.

Points to YES
Points to NO
  • By August 10 WTI had rebounded sharply to near 79.59, with session lows back above 77, reducing the visible footprint of the earlier dip.
    Aug 10 price near 79.59 with low 77.79, and settlements on Aug 6 and Aug 7 were 77.29 and 78.18.
  • The resolution depends on Pyth 1-minute candle verification, and the available records lack direct Pyth data, creating risk that official figures differ.
    Coverage notes state no direct Pyth 1-minute candle source was in the packet; FT daily lows and settlement reports are used as proxies.

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