Will Luke Herdegen win the 2026 Secret Harbour state by-election?
Realized · held to resolution+150%$100 paper stake
Polymarket40¢ → 100¢
Our position · YES40¢ → 100¢
Signal endedAug 30
Forecast updatedAug 29
Aug 29 forecast
Labor sources are bracing for defeat while One Nation is treated as the principal challenger, so Herdegen is favored to win Secret Harbour.
Herdegen is favored, but far from guaranteed. One Nation has become Labor’s principal challenger amid dissatisfaction with the government, strong campaign organization and weakening Liberal support. Labor retains substantial protection from its longstanding hold on the seat and favorable progressive preferences, leaving a credible path for Tree if late counting differs from the campaign’s apparent momentum.
Points to YES
- Labor’s defensive posture signals that Herdegen has a credible path through the count, raising his chance of defeating Tree.On August 29, Labor sources were reported as bracing for a loss while still hoping Georgia Tree could retain the seat.
- One Nation’s organization and campaign momentum increase Herdegen’s ability to turn dissatisfaction with the major parties into votes.On August 28, analyst John Phillimore said momentum appeared to be with One Nation because it had many volunteers and was well organized.
- Weak Liberal support creates a route for Herdegen to reach the final contest and gain enough conservative preferences to pass Labor.On August 28, Nine reported that Herdegen could finish second on first preferences and prevail through a solid flow of Liberal preferences.
Points to NO
- Labor’s deep electoral cushion gives Tree a resilient vote and preference base that Herdegen must overcome, lowering his chance of victory.At the 2025 state election, Labor won 46.5% of first preferences and 61.5% after preferences in Secret Harbour, while One Nation received 8.4% of first preferences.
- Progressive preferences and divided conservative transfers could allow Labor to survive even if Herdegen records a large first-preference surge.An August 12 analysis argued that Greens preferences strongly favored Labor and that Liberal and One Nation preferences were unlikely to transfer cleanly enough to defeat it.
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