Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?

Realized · 7-day hold−66%$100 paper stake

Polymarket36¢ → 12¢

Our position · YES36¢ → 12¢

Signal endedJul 21

Forecast updatedJul 20

Jul 14 forecast

A 30-transit day very likely already occurred before the blockade because traffic still ran at 34 daily transits as late as July 5.

Robust early July traffic before the July 8 truce collapse highly likely generated at least one daily print of 30 or more transits.

Points to YES

July 5 baseline recorded 34 transits
Evidence
Truce held until July 8 attacks
Evidence

Points to NO

40 percent traffic running dark
Evidence

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