Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?
Realized · held to resolution+32%$100 paper stake
Polymarket76¢ → 100¢
Our position · YES76¢ → 100¢
Signal endedAug 31
Forecast updatedAug 24
Aug 24 forecast
Steep weekly declines and school reopenings should restrain the final stretch, so Spider-Man’s August 31 domestic gross within the specified range is likely.
The film has securely crossed the range floor, while its estimated total through Sunday still leaves meaningful room below the ceiling. Rapid weekly declines, fewer theaters, and the return to school should slow the remaining run enough to preserve that room. Overshooting remains a meaningful risk because the latest weekend was still substantial and has not yet been finalized.
Points to YES
- The film has cleared the range floor while retaining substantial headroom below the ceiling, making a finish inside the range the leading path if late-run sales continue slowing.On August 23, The Numbers projected a cumulative domestic gross of $854.901 million through the film’s fourth weekend.
- The latest weekly decline points to rapidly diminishing daily revenue, reducing the amount likely to be added before the deadline.During August 14-20, the film earned $100,069,356, down 51% from the preceding week.
- School reopenings should suppress weekday attendance during the final stretch, helping keep the cumulative gross below the ceiling.A report published August 16 said 70% of U.S. K-12 students would have restarted classes by August 24 and expected weekday business to fall sharply.
Points to NO
- The fourth weekend remained large enough that only a modestly stronger-than-expected final stretch could exhaust the remaining headroom.On August 23, the film was reported to have earned an estimated $39 million during its fourth weekend, reaching about $854.9 million domestically.
- The latest weekend remains provisional, so upward revisions could shrink the cushion before the final week’s sales are counted.On August 23, the fourth-weekend figures were still studio estimates, with final domestic figures expected the following day.
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