QuotientQuotientQuotient

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?

Realized · 7-day hold+14%$100 paper stake
Polymarket14¢
Our position · NO86¢ 98¢
Signal endedJul 24
Forecast updatedJul 29
Jul 17 forecast

No US-Iran ceasefire can complete by July 24 because strikes through roughly July 16 push the earliest possible end of a 14-day halt to about July 29.

Confirmed US strikes through approximately July 16 reset the 14-day clock so the earliest possible completion is around July 29-30, after the July 24 resolution, making contract… Whether resolution authorities apply strict calendar arithmetic or allow reinterpretation despite the hard deadline. Strikes through July 16 reset the 14-day clock; earliest end is ~July 29-30, past resolution. Resolution assessment is fixed at July 24 23:59 ET, before any valid 14-day span can finish.

Points to NO
  • Strikes through July 16 reset the 14-day clock; earliest end is ~July 29-30, past resolution.
    Evidence
  • Resolution assessment is fixed at July 24 23:59 ET, before any valid 14-day span can finish.
    Evidence

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.