Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 84.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 1, 2026?
Signal ended
Entry · YES69¢
PublishedAug 31
Aug 31 forecast
WTI is above the threshold amid renewed Hormuz conflict, so an October-contract settlement above $84.49 is likely with meaningful uncertainty.
October WTI is currently around $85.46, providing a modest cushion above the threshold. Fresh U.S.-Iran hostilities and threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping support that cushion, while recovering exports and a wide intraday range leave substantial downside risk. An above-threshold settlement is likely with meaningful uncertainty.
Points to YES
- The October WTI contract was already trading above the $84.49 threshold on August 31.At 5:52 a.m. EDT on August 31, the October 2026 contract was quoted at $86.50 per barrel.
- Renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities are adding an immediate disruption premium to crude prices.On August 31, oil prices gapped higher after U.S. strikes on Iranian missile launchers and reported Iranian retaliation against regional U.S. assets.
- Depleted inventories and an expected supply deficit provide broader support beneath crude prices.On August 25, CME Group commentary said global oil stocks had fallen by 410 million barrels since late February and cited an expected third-quarter deficit.
Points to NO
- The contract remains close enough to the threshold for an ordinary reversal to produce a below-threshold settlement.On August 31, October WTI traded between $84.11 and $86.58 after opening at $84.69.
- Recovering Persian Gulf exports limit the price effect of continued regional conflict.On August 31, Goldman Sachs estimated that Persian Gulf oil exports had recovered to around two-thirds of prewar levels.
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