Will Bitcoin be at or above $79,000 on Aug 31?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+104%$100 paper stake

Kalshi51¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO49¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 31

Forecast updated

Aug 31 forecast

Recent cross-exchange prices sit below $79,000 with little time remaining, so an August 31 Bitcoin settlement at or above $79,000 is unlikely.

Bitcoin is trading almost exactly at the threshold, but a 10:40–10:42 UTC snapshot showed major exchanges around $78,350–$78,576. The current settlement-basis price of $79,043 leaves almost no cushion, while the day’s $79,316 high shows that another recovery remains plausible. With only hours remaining and recent momentum softening, an August 31 settlement at or above $79,000 is unlikely.

Points to NO

A broad spot-price snapshot placed Bitcoin several hundred dollars below the strike shortly before settlement.
At 10:40–10:42 UTC on August 31, reported BTC/USD trades across eleven exchanges ranged from $78,352.96 to $78,576.
Bitcoin entered the final day with weakening short-term momentum.
Late on August 30, Bitcoin was reported down 2.1% over 24 hours at $78,592.
A recent technical assessment identified unresolved bearish pressure near $80,000.
On August 30, Rekt Capital assessed that a hidden bearish divergence near $80,000 would persist unless Bitcoin made a new higher high.

Points to YES

The settlement-basis price is just above the strike, leaving the threshold immediately attainable.
On August 31, the current settlement-basis price was $79,043.0567, about 0.05% above $79,000, with 2.8 hours remaining.
Bitcoin has already traded above the threshold during the settlement day.
Kraken displayed a 24-hour Bitcoin high of $79,316.05 on August 31.

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