U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?

With only two days left and no confirmed direct U.S. ground or kinetic action reported, it is probably not but genuinely possible that a qualifying operation occurs before July 31.

The U.S. has escalated rhetoric and sanctions against cartels but has not conducted direct ground combat or strikes outside the U.S. in this window. The closest prior event, the March 2026 Ecuador strike, explicitly excluded direct U.S. ground combat. Mexico's firm opposition to unauthorized U.S. operations and the absence of any operational signals in the final 48 hours make a qualifying event before July 31 probably not, though genuinely possible. Even allowing for hidden actions, the need for official or overwhelming confirmation within two days keeps the outlook low.