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Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?

Realized · 7-day hold+22%$100 paper stake
Polymarket76¢ 93¢
Our position · YES76¢ 93¢
Signal endedAug 20
Forecast updatedAug 17
Aug 13 forecast

Apple is highly likely to remain second-largest by market cap on August 31, with Alphabet trailing by hundreds of billions and near-term momentum favoring stability.

Recent market-cap reports from August 8 to August 13 place Apple firmly in second place behind Nvidia and well ahead of Alphabet, with Apple near $4.41 trillion and Alphabet closer to $4.18 trillion. The only contradictory signal is an August 5 report that briefly showed Alphabet ahead, but subsequent data through August 13 consistently restores Apple to second. Given an 18-day window and no visible catalyst for Alphabet to erase a gap of roughly $230 billion, the outcome favors Apple retaining the position. Near-term dynamics also point toward stability rather than reversal.

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