Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+19%$100 paper stake

Polymarket16¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO84¢ → 100¢

Signal endedOct 1

Forecast updated

Aug 31 forecast

Iran’s fee legislation remains unfinished and current payment reports do not establish a generally applicable policy, so qualifying Hormuz fee collection is a long shot.

The newest reporting leans toward qualifying collection because the BBC and Mehr describe vessels being forced to pay for passage. However, those reports concern limited traffic and sit alongside unfinished legislation, unresolved Iran-Oman arrangements and substantial use of an alternative route. The most likely outcome is continued ambiguity without both a sufficiently broad official policy and clear reporting that Iran has begun collecting under it.

Points to NO

The proposed statutory authority for broad service fees has not completed Iran’s legislative process.
On August 23, the proposed fee legislation still required approval by Iran’s full parliament and Guardian Council before becoming law.
Most liquid-cargo traffic has avoided Iran’s preferred route, limiting Tehran’s practical ability to impose tolls broadly.
On August 18, Kpler reported that more than 80% of recent liquid-cargo transits used, or likely used, the Omani route and assessed that reduced traffic near Iran’s preferred route had prevented toll collection.
The Iran-Oman framework remains unfinished and does not automatically begin operating.
On August 29, Kazem Gharibabadi said implementation of the Hormuz understanding with Oman would not begin automatically and depended on the United States fulfilling its commitments.

Points to YES

Recent reporting describes Iran forcing tanker traffic through checks near Larak Island and demanding payment for passage.
On August 30, the BBC reported that Iran was making tankers pass Larak Island for checks and forcing vessels to pay $2 million to cross the strait.
Iranian reporting says vessels using Tehran-approved routes must coordinate in advance and pay required fees.
On August 31, sources quoted by Mehr said limited shipping using Tehran-approved routes required prior coordination and payment of required fees.

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