Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
Realized · held to resolution+75%$100 paper stake
Polymarket57¢ → 100¢
Our position · YES57¢ → 100¢
Signal endedAug 26
Forecast updatedAug 25
Graham’s first-round lead and Trump-backed turnout operation provide an electoral edge, so her nomination is favored but far from guaranteed.
Graham entered the runoff with more demonstrated statewide support, prominent endorsements and a heavily funded turnout operation. Her debate mistakes then erased much of her apparent cushion, leaving a competitive race in which Norman’s regional base and consolidated opposition could still prevail.
Points to YES
- Graham’s first-round victory established a broader starting coalition that gives her an advantage if most supporters return for the runoff.On August 11, Graham finished first in the special primary, ahead of Norman, while Russell Fry placed third.
- A large Trump-aligned voter-contact campaign can increase participation among Graham supporters in a low-turnout runoff.On August 24, MAGA Inc. disclosed more than $827,000 for calls and text messages supporting Graham, mostly for get-out-the-vote calls.
- Endorsements spanning Trump, statewide Republican leaders and an eliminated rival give Graham credible routes to consolidate enough runoff voters.By August 24, Graham had endorsements from Donald Trump, Tim Scott, Henry McMaster and eliminated third-place candidate Russell Fry.
Points to NO
- Late polling indicates Graham’s earlier advantage largely disappeared, making a Norman victory a substantial live outcome.Surveys conducted August 22–24 included one effective tie and a Norman-aligned poll showing him ahead among likely voters.
- Graham’s national-security answer raised qualification concerns at the worst stage of the campaign and could move undecided or soft supporters toward Norman.During the August 18 debate, Graham said national security was not her area and that she was not well informed on the subject.
- Early-voting growth in Norman-friendly counties gives his regional base a stronger path to offset Graham’s statewide first-round lead.By August 21, early turnout had risen in Norman-won Greenville, Spartanburg and York while declining in Graham-aligned Florence and Horry.
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