QuotientQuotientQuotient

Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 9, 2026?

Realized · held to resolution+35%$100 paper stake
Polymarket74¢ 100¢
Our position · YES74¢ 100¢
Signal endedSep 1
Forecast updatedSep 1
Aug 31 forecast

Multiple late-August reports describe Fable 5.1 testing and partial user routing, so Anthropic's next Mythos-class model release by September 9 is likely, with meaningful uncertainty.

Multiple late-August posts describe Fable 5.1 or related checkpoints in live testing, silent user routing, and release preparation. That support remains unofficial: Anthropic has not announced a shipping Fable 5.1, no public model card was visible on August 29, and its documented Model 2 remained internal-only. A qualifying release is nonetheless likely because the apparent user-facing tests could transition quickly into a named rollout, with time remaining beyond the near-term dates floated by model monitors. Meaningful uncertainty remains over whether the tested checkpoint receives an official Mythos-class designation and general-public access in time.

Points to YES
Points to NO

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.

A Quotient Signal is available to members. · Quotient Signals