Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Conviction at publication

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Sep 21 forecast

Recent polls consistently show Lula leading by margins just under 5 percentage points, so a narrow first-round victory is favored.

Recent polling data from multiple institutes consistently places Lula in the lead by margins between 1 and 5 percentage points, with the most authoritative surveys (Datafolha, AtlasIntel, BTG/Nexus) showing a lead just under 5%. At the same time, one major poll (Verita) gives Bolsonaro a lead of almost 4 percentage points, and a substantial share of minor-candidate voters lean toward Bolsonaro as a second choice, creating a real late-shift risk. The combination of a narrow but recurring lead, high voter commitment, and the unresolved cohort of swingable voters leaves Lula favored to win the first round by less than 5% but far from guaranteed to hold that margin or even to finish first.

Points to YES

Most recent major polls give Lula a lead of 1–5 percentage points, with the balance hovering just under 5%.
Datafolha poll September 15-17, 2026 shows Lula with 43% valid votes against Bolsonaro's 39%, a 4-point margin.
Multiple independent pollsters consistently report Lula leading by a narrow margin.
AtlasIntel poll September 11-16 shows Lula at 45.0% vs Bolsonaro 42.6%, a 2.4-point margin.
Voter commitment is high with 13 days left, reducing the chance of major swings, and recent margins sit at or just below 5%.
BTG/Nexus poll September 11-13 shows Lula 42% vs Bolsonaro 37%, a 5-point margin exactly at the threshold, and the same firm's subsequent survey on September 18-20 showed 84% of voters have made a final decision.

Points to NO

One major poll places Bolsonaro ahead, and several others show a very tight race, increasing uncertainty.
Verita poll September 10-19 shows Bolsonaro leading 45.53% to 41.76%, a margin well above 5% in Bolsonaro's favor.
A large pool of undecided or minor-candidate voters strongly favor Bolsonaro as a second choice, posing a late risk to Lula's lead.
Poll of minor-candidate voters by Gerp/Datafolha shows 48% could still change their vote, with second-round preferences leaning 44% to Bolsonaro vs 27% to Lula.
Even Lula's own campaign acknowledges a real risk that Bolsonaro overtakes him, reflecting internal concern.
Journalist Matheus Leitao reported on September 18 that Lula's campaign fears Bolsonaro may finish first-round ahead.

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