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Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 9, 2026?

Realized · held to resolution+35%$100 paper stake
Polymarket74¢ 100¢
Our position · YES74¢ 100¢
Signal endedSep 1
Forecast updatedSep 1
Aug 29 forecast

Reported routing tests and backend launch preparations point to an imminent successor, so a qualifying Mythos-class model release by the deadline is likely.

Several late-August signs point toward an approaching release: apparent experimental routing, backend preparation and an official reference to additional Mythos-class candidates. Anthropic had also said more capable models were expected in the coming months. However, no successor had appeared in official release notes, and the proposed names and launch timing remained unconfirmed. A short-notice rollout can bridge that gap, making release likely with meaningful uncertainty; prolonged silence or unfinished safety work could still prevent public availability in time.

Points to YES
Points to NO

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