US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?

Realized · 7-day hold−12%$100 paper stake

Polymarket26¢ → 35¢

Our position · NO74¢ → 65¢

Signal endedJul 25

Forecast updatedAug 11

Jul 18 forecast

The US almost certainly will not declare the Iranian blockade over by August 15, having reaffirmed active enforcement by US Central Command as recently as July 17.

The blockade is actively enforced with recent official confirmation and vessel interdictions, making an abrupt official reversal unlikely within four weeks. The resolution criteria are strict—requiring general, present-tense termination—so even tactical adjustments fail. Outside-view cases of blockade announcements support low reversal rates in active conflict windows. The forecast therefore centers on sustained enforcement with no qualifying announcement, yielding a low single-digit probability.

Points to NO

CENTCOM officially resumed and is actively enforcing the blockade with vessel disablements.
Evidence
Trump affirmed strikes continue and the blockade remains in effect on July 17.
Evidence
Active strikes and kinetic exchanges continue, structurally disincentivizing unilateral concession.
Evidence

Points to YES

Historical memory cases include several blockade-lifting announcements tied to deal frameworks.

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