Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 96.49 USD/Bbl on Sep 9, 2026?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+92%$100 paper stake

Kalshi48¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO52¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 9

Forecast updated

Sep 9 forecast

WTI remains below the threshold with only hours until settlement, so an October contract settlement above $96.49 is unlikely.

October WTI is near $95.01 with only hours remaining, leaving a modest but material climb to $96.49. The previous settlement was $93.03, while today’s rally and worsening Hormuz disruption keep a late spike plausible. Still, the contract must sustain its gain into the brief settlement window, making an above-threshold settlement unlikely.

Points to NO

The previous settlement left WTI well below the threshold entering the final session.
On September 8, 2026, the October WTI contract settled at $93.03 per barrel.
The latest quoted level remains below $96.49 despite the session’s advance.
On September 9, 2026, a live quote showed WTI at $95.10, up $2.07 on the session.
Technically stretched crude prices increase the risk that traders sell into further gains.
On September 8, 2026, both major crude benchmarks were reported to be in technically overbought territory.

Points to YES

Reduced Strait of Hormuz traffic creates continuing risk of an abrupt supply-driven price spike.
On September 9, 2026, estimated crude flows through Hormuz were reported to have fallen sharply in recent days after approaching five million barrels per day early in September.
Strong intraday momentum has narrowed the gap enough to keep a threshold crossing possible.
On September 9, 2026, WTI was quoted at $95.10 after gaining 2.23% during the session.

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