Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,750 on Sep 1?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution−100%$100 paper stake

Kalshi49¢ → 0¢

Our position · YES49¢ → 0¢

Signal endedSep 1

Forecast updated

Sep 1 forecast

Bitcoin is just above the threshold with hours remaining, so a September 1 price of at least $78,750 is narrowly favored.

The current settlement-basis price is $78,784.151, leaving only a narrow cushion above $78,750. September 1 reports conflict, with readings on both sides of the threshold, while strong weekly ETF inflows and a bullish technical bias compete with cooling momentum and weakening spot demand. A September 1 Bitcoin price at or above $78,750 is narrowly favored because the latest settlement-basis reading remains above the line, although the missing source and observation-time rules create substantial uncertainty.

Points to YES

Bitcoin currently sits just above the required threshold, providing a small but direct cushion for YES.
On September 1, 2026, the settlement-basis price was $78,784.151, about $34 above $78,750.
Recent institutional demand provides support for Bitcoin near the threshold.
On August 31, 2026, reported U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows totaled $946 million for the latest week and remained unusually elevated.
The latest technical assessment retained a bullish bias despite Bitcoin trading below the threshold at that moment.
On September 1, 2026, a technical report assessed that Bitcoin held a clear bullish bias at $78,415.

Points to NO

Multiple September 1 readings below $78,750 show that the cushion is fragile and source-dependent.
On September 1, 2026, CoinMarketCap market data placed Bitcoin at $78,738, $12 below the threshold.
Weakening spot buying pressure raises the risk of a late drop below the threshold.
On August 31, 2026, Bitcoin spot cumulative volume delta had fallen from $279.7 million to negative $67.2 million.
Elevated leverage increases the danger of an abrupt move during the remaining window.
On August 31, 2026, Bitcoin futures open interest had risen to $36.7 billion and remained above its high statistical band.

Research and information only. Not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Review venue rules and eligibility before trading.