Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenuePolymarket

Conviction at publication

Realized · held to resolution+19%$100 paper stake

Polymarket

Sep 21 forecast

Augusto Cury's sustained polling advantage places Caiado's third-place finish as a long shot, with 13 days left to reverse the gap.

Since early September, every major poll — Datafolha, BTG Pactual/Nexus, Quaest, CNT/MDA — has placed Augusto Cury in clear third place with 6–7% of valid first-round votes, while Ronaldo Caiado consistently polls at 4–5% and often ranks fourth or lower. The trend is against Caiado: his support dipped to 1% in late August and has only partially recovered to 4–5%. Campaign reports indicate his team is prioritizing regional allies in Goiás rather than a national push for third place. With only 13 days left, a late surge would require a dramatic shift in voter attention, a high-profile debate moment, or an unexpected weakness from Cury. None of these are visible in the available evidence, making a Caiado third-place finish a long shot.

Points to NO

Persistent polling gap: multiple September polls show Augusto Cury holding a stable 6–7% lead over Caiado's 4–5%.
Datafolha poll conducted September 15–17, 2026, showed Cury at 6% and Caiado at 4% of first-round voting intentions.
Campaign resources concentrated in Goiás: Caiado's team is prioritizing local races, limiting his national footprint.
On September 20, 2026, reports indicated Caiado was urged to focus on his allies' campaigns in Goiás rather than a national push.
Erosion of support: Caiado's numbers dropped sharply in late August and have not recovered to earlier levels.
Quaest poll August 30–September 1, 2026, recorded Caiado at 1%, down from 4% in mid-August.

Points to YES

Historical third-place standing: Caiado was in third as recently as late August, showing a baseline of support.
BTG Pactual/Nexus poll August 21–23, 2026, placed Caiado in third place with 5% of first-round votes.

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