US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18?

ResolutionResolved YES

YES payout100¢

NO payout0¢

VenuePolymarket

Realized · held to resolution+61%$100 paper stake

Polymarket62¢ → 100¢

Our position · YES62¢ → 100¢

Signal endedSep 15

Forecast updated

Sep 3 forecast

The latest U.S. strike wave has ended, leaving the required uninterrupted pause within reach, so a qualifying 14-day U.S. pause is favored.

The evidence remains sharply mixed: the United States struck Iran on September 1, Iran retaliated the next day, and both sides threatened further action. However, the U.S. military said its latest wave was complete, and officials reportedly sought quiet. Because the rules require only an uninterrupted absence of qualifying U.S. impacts—not a signed or reciprocal ceasefire—the current pause has a credible path to completion. Another U.S. strike remains a serious risk, particularly if Iranian attacks produce pressure for retaliation.

Points to YES

The latest U.S. strike wave ended, allowing the required uninterrupted period to begin.
On September 2, the U.S. military said it had completed its latest wave of strikes on Iran.
Senior U.S. officials reportedly want a near-term pause rather than a sustained strike campaign.
On September 2, Al-Monitor reported that Trump aides sought quiet in the Iran war, while suggesting attacks could intensify after the November elections.
Active mediation offers a channel for containing retaliation before it prompts another U.S. strike.
As of September 2, Pakistan remained engaged with the United States and Iran on efforts to resume negotiations for a permanent ceasefire.

Points to NO

Iranian retaliation creates a direct trigger for another qualifying U.S. strike.
On September 2, Iran launched missile and drone attacks against U.S. targets across the Middle East in response to the U.S. strikes.
The president has kept renewed attacks explicitly available, leaving the pause vulnerable to rapid reversal.
On September 2, President Donald Trump said the United States was prepared to carry out another attack at any time.
A recent monthlong lull ended abruptly, showing that quiet periods can break without durable diplomacy.
On August 30, the U.S. military resumed strikes against Iran after roughly a month without fighting.

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