Will Bitcoin be at or above $78,250 on Sep 1?
Signal ended
Entry · YES34¢
PublishedSep 1
Sep 1 forecast
Bitcoin is only 0.38% below the threshold with hours remaining, so a September 1 settlement at or above $78,250 is narrowly favored.
The settlement-basis price is $77,957.2543, just 0.38% below the strike, while several September 1 readings were already above $78,250. Recent trading has covered a much wider range than the remaining gap, making a recovery plausible within the available hours. Negative spot buying pressure, declining volume, and ETF outflows temper that case and leave substantial risk of a finish below the threshold.
Points to YES
- Several September 1 spot readings were already above the threshold.Bitcoin traded at $79,024 on September 1, placing it comfortably above $78,250 at that observation.
- Recent price swings are large relative to the small remaining gap.Bitcoin moved between roughly $77,200 and $79,200 during the 24 hours leading into September 1.
Points to NO
- Bitcoin currently sits slightly below the $78,250 threshold.On September 1, the settlement-basis price was $77,957.2543, leaving Bitcoin 0.38% below the strike with 12.5 hours remaining.
- Spot demand weakened as the settlement approached.On August 31, spot cumulative volume delta turned negative while seven-day spot trading volume fell 29.3% to $6.2 billion.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin funds recently registered net withdrawals.U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $202 million in outflows on August 28, ending nine consecutive days of net inflows.
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