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Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?

Realized · 7-day hold+5%$100 paper stake
Polymarket66¢ 70¢
Our position · YES66¢ 70¢
Signal endedAug 23
Forecast updatedAug 24
Aug 16 forecast

With about $786M through Aug 16 and decelerating but steady daily grosses, reaching $800M is nearly assured while $900M remains out of reach, so the 800-900M range is likely.

As of Aug 16, the film has grossed about $785.8M domestically through its seventeenth day. It needs only about $14M more to clear $800M, a threshold it should reach within the first day or two of the remaining window given current daily levels. By contrast, reaching $900M requires about $114M over 15 days, or roughly $7.6M per day on average—far above recent weekday figures that have already fallen into the low-to-mid teens and are expected to keep declining. Weekend drops near 50-60% confirm deceleration rather than acceleration. The resolution will use The Numbers final daily figures through Aug 31, and current tracking from Box Office Mojo and weekend charts aligns closely with that source. Because the lower bound is almost certain and the upper bound demands an unrealistic sustained pace, the outcome should fall inside the range, though uncertainty remains about the exact final figure and any late adjustments.

Points to YES
Points to NO

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