Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 86.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 31, 2026?
Recent WTI settlements remain below the threshold despite renewed conflict, so an August 31 settlement above $86.49 is a meaningful underdog.
The visible evidence leans toward a settlement at or below $86.49. WTI stands at $86.2205, only about 0.31% short, but the previous completed settlement was substantially lower and earlier August 31 readings also missed the threshold. Renewed U.S.-Iran strikes and constrained Strait of Hormuz traffic keep a late spike plausible, while recovering Persian Gulf exports limit the pressure. With little time remaining and elevated two-way volatility, an above-threshold settlement remains live but is not the most likely outcome.
- WTI remains slightly below the settlement threshold with only hours left.On August 31, settlement-basis WTI stood at $86.2205, compared with the $86.49 threshold and about 7.3 hours remaining.
- The previous completed settlement left WTI with substantial ground to recover.The October 2026 WTI contract settled at $83.40 per barrel on August 28.
- Recovering Persian Gulf exports soften the market impact of restricted transit.On August 28, Persian Gulf oil exports were reported at 15–16 million barrels per day, about two-thirds of pre-war levels.
- Renewed U.S.-Iran fighting has restored a strong geopolitical risk premium.October 2026 WTI futures rose 2.4% early on August 31 after U.S. strikes on Iranian launchers and Iranian retaliation.
- Severely constrained Strait of Hormuz traffic continues to threaten oil supply.On August 27, only 12 vessels transited the strait, less than 10% of normal pre-war traffic.
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