Will the WTI crude oil settlement price be above 86.49 USD/Bbl on Aug 31, 2026?

ResolutionResolved NO

YES payout0¢

NO payout100¢

VenueKalshi

Realized · held to resolution+67%$100 paper stake

Kalshi40¢ → 0¢

Our position · NO60¢ → 100¢

Signal endedAug 31

Forecast updated

Aug 31 forecast

Recent WTI settlements remain below the threshold despite renewed conflict, so an August 31 settlement above $86.49 is a meaningful underdog.

The visible evidence leans toward a settlement at or below $86.49. WTI stands at $86.2205, only about 0.31% short, but the previous completed settlement was substantially lower and earlier August 31 readings also missed the threshold. Renewed U.S.-Iran strikes and constrained Strait of Hormuz traffic keep a late spike plausible, while recovering Persian Gulf exports limit the pressure. With little time remaining and elevated two-way volatility, an above-threshold settlement remains live but is not the most likely outcome.

Points to NO

WTI remains slightly below the settlement threshold with only hours left.
On August 31, settlement-basis WTI stood at $86.2205, compared with the $86.49 threshold and about 7.3 hours remaining.
The previous completed settlement left WTI with substantial ground to recover.
The October 2026 WTI contract settled at $83.40 per barrel on August 28.
Recovering Persian Gulf exports soften the market impact of restricted transit.
On August 28, Persian Gulf oil exports were reported at 15–16 million barrels per day, about two-thirds of pre-war levels.

Points to YES

Renewed U.S.-Iran fighting has restored a strong geopolitical risk premium.
October 2026 WTI futures rose 2.4% early on August 31 after U.S. strikes on Iranian launchers and Iranian retaliation.
Severely constrained Strait of Hormuz traffic continues to threaten oil supply.
On August 27, only 12 vessels transited the strait, less than 10% of normal pre-war traffic.

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